Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,649$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(614 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $158$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(37.5 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(124.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $585$ on 2020-08-10

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,708$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(107.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,015.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,015.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,987$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(808 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(97.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,945.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,945.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,321$ on 2020-08-10

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $250,825$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(9.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239,423.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(239,423.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,209$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,453.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.5)}}\) (asimptote \(34,453.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,368$ on 2020-08-10

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,094,400$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,258,100.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 158.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,258,100.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $163,463$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{145,340.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(145,340.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,260,182$ on 2020-08-10

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $313,392$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{292,341.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(292,341.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46,611$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,441.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 48.5)}}\) (asimptote \(44,441.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $265,318$ on 2020-08-10

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $82,972$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(8.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,246.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.6)}}\) (asimptote \(90,246.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,766$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,604.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,604.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $77,206$ on 2020-08-10

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $218,508$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(7.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{194,093.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(194,093.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,203$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,920.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,920.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,923$ on 2020-08-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 97%
Korea, South recovered 92%
Qatar recovered 91%
Belarus recovered 87%
Austria recovered 85%
Slovenia recovered 85%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 84%
Pakistan recovered 84%
Oman recovered 78%
Sri Lanka recovered 72%
Azerbaijan recovered 71%
United Arab Emirates recovered 68%
Guatemala recovered 66%
Croatia recovered 53%
Kuwait recovered 50%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 50%
Portugal recovered 48%
Saudi Arabia recovered 47%
Montenegro recovered 46%
Madagascar recovered 44%
Uruguay recovered 43%
Armenia recovered 42%
Egypt recovered 33%
Russia recovered 26%
Kazakhstan recovered 26%
South Africa recovered 22%
Rwanda recovered 18%
Uzbekistan recovered 15%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $88,906$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.001t}\) (doubling rate \(303.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,977.0}{1 + 10^{-0.087 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(83,977.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,689$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,672.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,672.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,970$ on 2020-08-10

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,660$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(6.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(143.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,708.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 22.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,708.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $305$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(127 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(112.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{283.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(283.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $626$ on 2020-08-10

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $113,262$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,778.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.2)}}\) (asimptote \(111,778.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $188$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(12.3 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 87.1)}}\) (asimptote \(190.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,081$ on 2020-08-10

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,947$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,809.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 72.3)}}\) (asimptote \(67,809.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $589$ on 2020-08-10

Best fit exponential: \(76.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{651.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 79.0)}}\) (asimptote \(651.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,367$ on 2020-08-10